For only the second time in my Hurricanes fandom, the team decided to be buyers at the trade deadline. Heavy buyers. Not the “Sergei Samsonov for Bryan Allen” or “Ryan Carter & a draft pick for Cory Stillman” type of trades. No, these were the types of moves that get you on the front page of NHL.com for five minutes before they switch to the next headline. It was the most productive deadline day the Hurricanes have had that didn’t involve trading expiring contracts for draft picks.
On the whole, three trades were made. One unanimously approved deal, one rental that seemed fueled by desperation and one very strange trade that seemed to come out of nowhere. The first two are pretty clear-cut. Vincent Trocheck is better than any center Carolina has not named Sebastian Aho and Carolina acquired him for a UFA, a good roster player, an older prospect and another forward prospect. You make that deal nine times out of ten. Adding a rental like Vatanen isn’t ideal, but the price wasn’t too bad. Janne Kuokkanen could be a very good player in a couple of years and is facing another roster logjam next season. I’m not as high on Vatanen as I once was, but he is likely better than whoever was next in line to replace Brett Pesce on the depth chart.
Now to address the elephant in the room….
Is Brady Skjei good?
Well, the Hurricanes seem to think so. On the surface, it’s easy to see why some hockey people fawn over a player like Skjei. He’s big, can skate well and has played a lot of minutes on bad Rangers teams. You don’t have to show scouts or GMs any video and they would likely give a Top 50 pick on the spot to acquire a player like this based on that info alone. Even just watching him, it’s easy to get caught up in some of the plays he makes. He can skate through the forecheck easily, make crisp passes out of the zone and help out offensively with some timely pinches. All of that is nice, but at the end of the day, you’d like to see results.
This is where the problem is with Skjei.
Chart courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy‘s Hockeyviz site.
This is Skjei’s isolated impact at five-on-five play. It’s a heatmap which shows the shots taken & surrendered by the Rangers while Skjei was on the ice while neutralizing teammate impacts. You ideally want to see a positive number in the offensive zone and a negative number in the defensive zone. Skjei hasn’t been able to do either in any of his seasons (feel free to ignore 2015-16 where he only played seven games). His teams give up more shots than they create when he is on the ice and they create dangerous ones to boot, this year especially.
Other metrics don’t paint a rosy picture either.
Skjei is a replacement-level defenseman who showed some potential earlier in his career. twitter.com/hayyyshayyy/st… https://t.co/r4HQMMggaO—
Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) February 24, 2020
By Evolving Wild’s Rate Adjusted Plus/Minus & Goals Above Replacement model, Skjei’s had one very good season (his rookie year) and hasn’t been able to get close to that since. Skjei plays a lot of minutes and sees the other team’s top lines for a good chunk of his shifts, but good d-men can succeed despite their deployment. There are plenty of guys who can crush third pair minutes & struggle to move up in the lineup. Skjei is looking like the latter thus far. So, the Hurricanes gave up a first round pick and committed themselves long-term to a defenseman who might not be good at all. Or at least that’s what my immediate reaction to the deal was.
That and there are a lot of complications with adding another defenseman with term like Skjei. The Hurricanes have the most depth there and their top defense prospect, Jake Bean, is also a lefty. They also have long-term money tied up in Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce & Jake Gardiner for the next four years. Add in Skjei’s deal and that’s another $5.25 mil. tied up in the defense corps when they have a big off-season coming up in two years with Andrei Svechnikov, Dougie Hamilton and both goaltenders up for new contracts. It’s not an immediate concern, as adding Trocheck takes away one need for next season, but they’re investing a ton of cap space in their defense while blocking one of their best prospects.
Now, I’ll just say that this isn’t totally cut-and-dry. I tend to think that defensemen are more of a product of their environment than anything else unless they’re a special breed like an Erik Karlsson or Seth Jones. They all have their individual skillsets but defensemen are more reliant on their teammates than forwards are when it comes to driving results. This isn’t always the case, but defensemen’s on-ice results always seem to change when they go to a different team. Carolina’s not a bad example. Trevor van Riemsdyk has done well here, Calvin de Haan had one of his best seasons last year, Joel Edmundson has played well for them in spots. If you’ve been around long enough, you might remember Andrej Sekera having a great season with the Canes immediately after a disastrous year with the Buffalo Sabres. Being behind Staal or Aho’s line is a nice security blanket. That and measuring defensive play is a tough task in its own right.
That said, there are lots of red flags with Skjei and how good he is as a regular NHLer and two key players who make Carolina a place for defensemen to thrive are currently sitting on injured reserve.
“The System”
The main thing worth pointing out with Skjei and his underwhelming stats is that the Rangers have been a bad team for awhile. Even when they were winning, they were always getting heavily outshot at five-on-five during the Alain Vingeault years and the same can be said for David Quinn’s first season. Some of their fans replied to my initial thoughts on the trade and expect Skjei to thrive in Carolina because most backs have posted terrible numbers in New York & improved once they went to other teams.
The most extreme example of this is Dan Giradi, who looked like one of the worst players in the NHL in his final two seasons in New York. Compare that to his two years in Tampa and he looks slightly better, albeit still a negative player in shot differential in a lesser role. Nick Holden has seen his stats improve in Vegas and Neal Pionk has found some success as a power play specialist in Winnipeg. It was tough to find an example outside of those three but the overall point of defensemen struggling under Lindy Ruff’s defensive scheme is valid. Just look at Jacob Trouba this year.
What exactly is going on here, though? It’s easy to blame the system but hockey is such a read-and-react game at five-on-five and the players have to perform too, unless the coach is flat out telling them to never skate with the puck or make a pass. That and Adam Fox seems to be doing just fine in the same system, so a more experienced player like Skjei should be able to perform better than he has. Skjei still has his strengths, though. Even with system issues, he’s shown to be a very good defenseman at moving the puck up ice.
It’s a skill that hasn’t left him and I have to imagine that the Hurricanes probably value this, especially with all the injuries. Exits & entries tend to be more player driven than the system so I can see why some would be optimistic when looking at how Skjei will fit in with Carolina. At the very least you don’t want him to be a drag on a partner like Slavin or even Hamilton in future seasons. The two major concerns are his mediocre offensive numbers and his ability to defend the blue line, or lack thereof. It’s been a problem for his entire career. Part of that is systematic, as the Rangers defense’s preferred method of defending entries was giving up the line & trying to protect the net. Compare it to Carolina’s defense last season and you’ll see a difference.
2018-19 Zone Entry Defense Stats Visit my Tableau page for more. https://public.tableau.com/profile/corey.sznajder#!/
Skjei was one of New York’s more aggressive players when it came to denying passes after gaining the line, but you see the stark contrast with how the Hurricanes and Rangers defend. Protect the house is the name of the game and it applies to both the neutral & defensive zones.
It’s easy to see the gameplan here. Skjei gives up the line and does his best to keep the first attacker to the outside while the back-checking forward handles the middle of the ice. This almost led to a disaster, as they gave up a lot of space on this rush but Marchand fanned on the shot so no damage was done. Still, this is generally what most rushes against the Rangers look like, especially against top lines where they have to give some respect to the oncoming forwards.
What about one-on-one situations?
Again Skjei backs off at the line but he stays a little more aggressive this time and tries to cut off Bjorkstrand at the wall. It works to a point, as Bjorkstrand didn’t have a lot of options, but it still led to the Jackets starting a cycle and there were some potential scoring chances there. This is potential danger with giving up the blue line on every entry. Sure, you don’t want to get burned from being too aggressive, but it’s easier for the other team to setup their offense if you’re allowing them to enter the zone freely, unless it’s an outnumbered situation.
Now, nothing too bad happened on those plays but you can see why the the Rangers might be giving up so many shots while he’s on the ice. If the plan is to keep teams to the outside then that usually leads to you giving up more shots & chances from a volume standpoint because the puck is in your own zone most of the time. This was the recurring theme when I was reviewing clips of Skjei. He was basically defending all the time and usually positioned in front of the net or chasing someone behind the goal line. The Hurricanes are a little more aggressive with how they like to defend so it will be interesting to see if he can fit in.
He has the physical skills to play this type of style well but hasn’t shown it with the Rangers. Some of that is his partners & the system but I still don’t like the gap he’s giving up in most of the clips I’m watching. He’s such a good skater that he should be able to take time & space more effectively but defaulting into protect mode when the other team is on the attack just takes that factor away. If he was winning battles in front of the net & boxing out forwards it would be one thing, but
Can he improve with the Hurricanes?
Defending styles vary from team-to-team. The Hurricanes probably think they can fix whatever deficiencies Skjei has there. His play with the puck, however, is more dependent on his own skillset. Fortunately, this is the one area where he’s performed well in. He had a great rookie season and has continued to be a solid player a exiting the zone for most of his career. He’s also shown to be good at leading rushes on his own, which is a welcomed addition to Carolina.
The problem is that he doesn’t have much to show for these nice stats outside of his rookie season. Getting some time behind the Hurricanes first line might help him a little, that and the Canes spend less time in the defensive zone compared to New York, but what else can they do to maximize his skillset? Not wasting his offensive instincts would be a good start.
This shift shows why scouts and teams probably love Brady Skjei. Look at him dodge two forecheckers and get through the neutral zone to lead a rush. Everything up until he gained the blue line was good, then he took a harmless shot and the Jackets started a rush of their own (with Skjei caught up in the play to boot). I’d like to see him use his teammates a little better here. Sure, we all love end-to-end rushes when they happen but it’s rare that you actually score off them. Skjei’s had a tendency to do this and it’s been an issue for the past couple of years.
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Skjei carries the puck into the zone at very high rate for a defenseman, but he’s only looking to shoot once he gains the zone. Looking for passes, which lead to higher quality chances, could improve how much of an impact he has offensively. His defense might always be a concern, but if he can make up for it at the other end, I’m sure the Hurricanes will be pleased with what they get from him. Of course, the Canes themselves have had a problem with creating off the rush this year, as they’ve been primarily a dump-and-chase team. Adding Skjei (and Trocheck for that matter) should improve that if they’re looking to change how they play.
The Trocheck trade will likely have more impact on how the Canes play than either defense trade because they now have three play-driving centers and someone like Skjei could benefit from getting to play on the attack more. He’s generally at his best when he’s the trailer on the rush or activating in the offensive zone to keep pucks alive. The team just needs to work out some bad habits in his game that have been holding him back.
What’s your verdict?
Right now, I’m still very skeptical. Even though I just said a bunch of nice things about Skjei, there’s a long track record of him being a very mediocre top-four defenseman that his talents don’t completely off-set it. Giving up a first round pick (albeit a late one) and taking on his $5.25 mil. contract is also a tough gamble for the Hurricanes. Their defense is in shambles right now but Pesce & Hamilton aren’t going to be hurt forever and I don’t know if they needed to add Skjei to make a playoff push, especially since they didn’t add a goalie.
Getting Trocheck makes me feel a little more confident, because the forward corps just got a huge boost and having three good lines can go a long way to helping their defense. Skjei will probably look better by the “eye-test” for the first few games and he’s better than whoever they were going to call-up from Charlotte to play the rest of the year. I’m just not sure if he’s going to be good enough to justify spending the late first round pick or taking on his contract (and likely moving Gardiner or someone else). The Canes are placing a lot of faith in their coaching staff to get this right and it will be interesting to see if Skjei’s stats improve in a new environment. My hope is that they don’t see Skjei as a net-front, defensive defenseman because he struggled in that role with New York. He does have skills the Hurricanes can use, though and we will see if they can make the most of them.
The Energy Line 